Terrorism
National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians Annual Report 2020
Overview
21. In its 2018 annual report, the Committee noted that the national security and intelligence community identified terrorism as the primary threat to national security. The government also stated that individuals or groups inspired by Salafi-jihadi ideology posed the greatest terrorist threat to Canada. This assessment has evolved based on a number of trends and events. These include the liberation of Daesh-controlled territory in Iraq and Syria, the subsequent detention of Canadian extremist travellers (also known as foreign fighters) in Syria, attacks against Canadians by extremist individuals and organizations, and the rise of ideologically motivated violent extremism. These issues are described below.
Description of the threat
22. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) stated in its 2018 public report that terrorism was the primary threat to Canada's national security. Footnote 4 In the same year, Public Safety Canada noted in its Public Report on the Terrorist Threat to Canada that individuals or groups inspired by violent Salafi jihadi ideology, such as that of Daesh or al-Qaida, pose the greatest terrorist threat to Canada and Canadian interests. Since October 2014, Canada's National Terrorism Threat Level has held at medium, meaning that a terrorist attack could occur in Canada and that additional measures are in place to keep Canadians safe. Footnote 5 Between July 2018 and September 2020, the RCMP conducted *** terrorism-related investigation(s). Footnote 6 In that same period, CSIS conducted warranted terrorism-related investigation(s) into *** target(s) and*** organization(s). CSIS also reported to the Committee there has only been one foiled terrorist plot in Canada during that period. Footnote 7
23. The nature of the global terrorism threat is changing. The 2019 liberation of Daesh-controlled territory in Iraq and Syria was a major international counter-terrorism victory, but has led to a number of challenges with respect to the deradicalization of extremist travellers and the repatriation of those individuals and their families. (CSIS defines Canadian extremist travellers as individuals with a nexus to Canada, such as citizens, permanent residents or visa holders, who are suspected of having travelled abroad to engage in terrorism-related activity. Footnote 8 ) In West Africa, Daesh- and al-Qaida-aligned groups continue to pose threats to Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel, civilians and businesses. Individuals the same time, new threats have corne to the fore. A string of ideologically motivated violent extremism-inspired attacks in Canada and other countries has made clear that that this type of extremism poses a growing threat to Canadian national security.
International terrorism environment
24. International trends and events affect Canada's terrorism threat environment. One of the most significant terrorism-related events in recent history was the emergence of Daesh and the related onset of conflict in Iraq and Syria in 2011. At its peak; Daesh controlled approximately one-third of Syrian territory and 40 percent of Iraqi territory. Footnote 9 In 2015 alone, the group's revenue ranged from US$1 billion to US$2.4 billion. Footnote 10 Daesh's initial success - exemplified by its battlefield victories, contrai of territory and financial resources - allowed it to create a safe haven for terrorist planning, expand its network of affiliates beyond the borders of Iraq and Syria, and inspire individuals around the world to conduct attacks in support of the organization and its goals. Estimates suggest that over 40,000 extremist travellers from more than 110 countries, including Canada, travelled to Daesh-controlled territory in Iraq and Syria. Footnote 11
25. Daesh-controlled territory in Iraq and Syria was liberated in 2019. Daesh had declared that territory as a "caliphate" and used it to raise funds, recruit, train, influence and direct attacks. Its liberation was a blow to Daesh capabilities and resulted in the Syrian Democratic Forces holding over 100,000 Daesh-affiliates and their relatives in detention facilities. Footnote 12 This poses bath a foreign policy and counter-terrorism challenge to states, who must decide whether to repatriate detained individuals and how to manage the risk posed by those returnees.
26. Extremist travellers continue to be a security concern for Canada. CSIS estimates that at least 200 extremist travelers with a connection to Canada have travelled overseas to join Daesh and other terrorist groups since 2013, with 122 in Syria, Iraq and Turkey, and the rest in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Lebanon and Somalia. Footnote 13 As noted by the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, not all of these individuals were involved in fighting: "[s]ome of them have become battlefield combatants. Others did fundraising, operational planning, online propaganda, recruitment, training and other complicit activity," while others "were just camp followers." Footnote 14 Nonetheless, their return to Canada or their continued activities abroad remain a security challenge. Of the approximately 200 extremists who travelled abroad from Canada, 61 have returned. Footnote 15 According to CSIS, as of November 2020, there are 122 extremist travellers in Turkey, Syria and Iraq. Of this total,*** are suspected dead. Of the remaining ***, *** are in Syria (*** detained, *** at large), *** are in Turkey (*** detained, *** at large), and *** are in Iraq (*** detained, *** at large). Footnote 16 Global Affairs Canada and Public Safety Canada continue to manage the process of Canadian extremist travellers seeking to return, and cooperate with the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and other Canadian police to mitigate potential associated risks. To date, no returnee has conducted an attack in Canada, but individuals who either aspired or were thwarted in their plans to fight abroad have.
27. Despite their gradual weakening, Daesh and al-Qaida continue to operate. They direct affiliated groups and inspire other groups and individuals around the world to engage in terrorism. Daesh remains active in parts of Iraq and Syria, and securing the border between the two countries is a persistent challenge. Footnote 17 Daesh fighters pose a threat to CAF personnel in Iraq, where Canada supports two missions: its own Operation IMPACT and the NATO Mission Iraq. While the CAF has withdrawn some personnel from Iraq, *** remain in the country in support of the two missions. Outside of Iraq and Syria, Daesh branches in Afghanistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines pose persistent threats to state and regional security. Footnote 18 Daesh affiliates in West Africa and the Greater Sahara and al-Qaida affiliates in the Sahel are also particularly active.
28. Daesh and al-Qaida affiliates in Africa pose threats to Canadians. Between August 2018 and August 2019, the CAF deployed an aviation task force in Mali in support of a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission. Canada currently maintains multiple peacekeeping contributions in Mali, including up to 10 CAF members and civilian police officers. In Burkina Faso, a 2019 attack on a convoy transporting workers of a Canadian-owned mine killed 39 individuals and injured 60 others, forcing the company to suspend operations, which in turn negatively affected Canadian business interests. Canadians have also been kidnapped and, in some cases, murdered, in the region. For example, Daesh claimed responsibility for the January 2019 murder of a Canadian man who was kidnapped from a Canadian-owned mine in Burkina Faso. In another example, a Canadian woman was kidnapped in Burkina Faso in December 2018 [*** Two sentences were revised to remove injurious or privileged information. The sentences describe some intelligence related to the kidnapping and a CSIS assessment. ***] Footnote 19 *** Footnote 20
29. Terrorist activity continues in Canada. Footnote 21 Since 2018, two fatal attacks have resulted in charges of terrorist activity, as defined in section 83.01 of the Criminal Code. In February 2020, an individual was charged with first-degree murder and terrorist activity following a Daesh-inspired hammer attack that killed one woman in Toronto. Footnote 22 In May 2020, the same charges were laid against an individual inspired by the involuntary celibate (or "Incel") ideology, a subculture of violent misogyny, who killed a woman in a massage parlour in Toronto. Footnote 23 The Criminal Code also contains provisions for offences related to facilitating terrorist activity, leaving Canada to join a terrorist group and participating in the activities of a terrorist group. Since 2018, five individuals have been charged with such offences: one in Kingston, Ontario, in January 2019; one in Guelph, Ontario, in December 2019, and that individual's spouse in Markham, Ontario, in August 2020; one in Calgary, Alberta, in July 2020; and a related case in Calgary, Alberta, in September 2020. Footnote 24 ITAC assesses that the "greatest terrorist threat to Canada remains domestic extremists who have been inspired by ideologies promoted by groups such as Daesh, al-Qaida or the ideologically motivated (IMV) extremist milieu." Footnote 25
30.Canada also continues to face exposure to terrorism financing risks. In its 2018 Public Report on the Terrorist Threat to Canada, Public Safety Canada listed Daesh, al-Qaida and Hizballah as the groups of highest-concern from a terrorism financing perspective. The same report notes that some Canadians continue to support groups associated with ***, including through financing of suspected terrorist groups. Footnote 26 ITAC assesses that a small number of extremists in Canada support terrorism-related activities, *** Footnote 27
Ideologically motivated violent extremism
31. ldeologically motivated violent extremism has been growing since 2018. This form of extremism encompasses xenophobic violence, anti-authority violence, gender-driven violence and "other grievance-driven and ideologically motivated violence." Footnote 28 According to CSIS, what unites these groups and individuals is a common belief that "the success or survival of society/civilization cannot be separated from the need for ongoing violence against a perceived threatening group (e.g. the elite, visible minorities, religious groups, corporations, immigrants, capitalists, the government, etc.)." Footnote 29 While CSIS uses the term ideologically motivated violent extremism to describe attacks motivated by extreme ideologies across the political spectrum, CSIS's recognition of this form of extremism is in part a response to the evolving threat of right-wing extremism.
32. In Canada, individuals and groups who harbour such views are particularly active online. They exchange ideas using chat forums, conventional social media platform and those dedicated specifically to ideologically motivated violent extremism, and online networks. Footnote 30 A 2020 study by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue found that Canadians are highly active across 6,600 identified right-wing extremist channels, pages, groups and accounts. The study also pointed to one prominent message board, on which Canadians are more active than American or British users. Footnote 31
33. Generally, individuals inspired by ideologically motivated violent extremism are less likely to be formally affiliated with a group than those inspired by the ideology of Daesh or al-Qaida. That said, research suggests that as of 2015, at least 100 white supremacist and neo-Nazi groups existed across Canada, with the vast majority of ideologically motivated violent extremism activity in southwestern Ontario, southern Quebec and southern Alberta. Footnote 32 More recent estimates suggest that there are doser to 300 such groups across Canada. Footnote 33
34. Neo-Nazi groups are active and growing. CSIS reports that one such group, the Atomwaffen Division, [*** This sentence was revised to remove injurious or privileged information. The sentence summarizes a CSIS assessment of the group. ***] Footnote 34 Other ideologically motivated violent extremism groups such as the Azov Battalion in Ukraine seem to be trying to create a more united transnational movement using social media. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) notes that a report from the non-profit research group the Soufan Center daims that at least 14 Canadians have travelled to Ukraine to train with extremists. Footnote 35
35. The threat of ideologically motivated violent extremism is growing around the world. According to the 2019 Global Terrorism Index, incidents of this form of extremism in the West increased by 320 percent from 2013 to 2018. Footnote 36 An April 2020 report released by the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate similarly warns that "there has been a recent increase in ... frequency and lethality" of ideologically motivated violent extremism attacks. Footnote 37 Since the Committee's last overview in 2018, there have been multiple such attacks. The most prominent among them are listed below. In Christchurch, New Zealand, in March 2019, an individual killed 51 people and injured 49 others in two consecutive attacks on masques. The attacks were cited as the inspiration of a racist, anti-immigrant attack in El Paso, Texas in August 2019, which killed 22 people and injured another 26. In Halle, Germany, in October 2019, an individual with far-right, anti-Semitic motives killed two people after attempting to storm a synagogue. Four months later, in a racist, anti-immigrant attack, an individual shot and killed nine individuals in Hanau, Germany.
36. Violent attacks by Incel-inspired extremists also pose a growing threat. The Incel subculture is growing and increasingly overlapping with other types of violent extremism. CSIS notes that "violent misogyny is intertwined with other concepts of [ideologically motivated violent extremism], including white supremacy. Hatred for women connects many white supremacists, Incels and other individuals/groups within the broader manosphere." Footnote 38 The mobilization of these individuals and groups has been heavily influenced by social media, which serves as a type of echo chamber to potentially radicalize and embolden actors to violence. Footnote 39 Canada has experienced three Incel-inspired attacks in the past two years. In April 2018, a member of the misogynistic Incel movement killed 10 individuals and injured another 16 in a van attack in Toronto, Ontario. Footnote 40 In June 2019, an individual inspired by the 2018 van attack stabbed a woman and injured her child in Sudbury, Ontario. Footnote 41 In February 2020, an individual motivated by the Incel ideology stabbed and killed one individual and injured another in Toronto, Ontario. Footnote 42 This latter incident marked the first time in Canada in which an individual was charged with a terrorism-related offence for an Incel-inspired attack (see paragraph 29).
37. States have adopted a number of measures to address the growing threat of ideologically motivated violent extremism. The United Kingdom has listed National Action (also known as Scottish Dawn, NS131 and System Resistance Network) and Sonnenkrieg Division as terrorist entities. Footnote 43 In April 2020, the United States listed the Russian Imperial Movement, and in 2019, Canada added Blood & Honour and Combat 18 to its list of terrorist entities (a link to the complete list of designated terrorist entities is included in the footnote below). Footnote 44 Following the Christchurch masque attacks, New Zealand targeted right-wing extremists' use of the Internet by criminalizing the possession and distribution of the attacker's manifesta and live-streamed video. Footnote 45 Similarly, Australia adopted legislation that imposes fines and potential jail time for firms that do not expeditiously remove "abhorrent violent material" from their websites. Footnote 46
Terrorist tactics and targets
38. In Canada, the main terrorist threat - from any group or individual - remains low-sophistication attacks on unsecured public spaces. Such attacks require minimal skills and resources, but can result in mass casualties and attract public attention. Soft targets, such as hotels, shopping centres and restaurants, are easily accessible and often crowded. Footnote 47 ITAC assesses that while most extremists would prefer to conduct a large-scale, highly sophisticated attack, they will likely resort to what is achievable, namely, low-skill attacks on soft targets. Footnote 48
COVID-19 pandemic
39. The pandemic has affected the accessibility of targets, the planning of violent extremists and the radicalization of individuals. ITAC assesses that the reductions in mass gatherings and the closure of public spaces will cause potential attackers to adjust their planning rather than forgo a potential attack. In some cases, the pandemic and the concurrent anti-racism protests have increased anti-government online rhetoric connected to ideologically motivated violent extremism. Footnote 49 CSIS notes that restrictions put in place for the pandemic, such as limits on travel, have disrupted *** terrorist facilitation efforts. However, those groups are readjusting to exploit pandemic measures *** to further their objectives. Footnote 50
40. While violent extremists have adapted their activities, the potential for an increase in radicalization also exists. The RCMP assesses that the restrictions, including lockdown measures, put in place during the pandemic couId result in people looking for advice or information over the Internet and accessing extremist echo chambers. This risk is magnified by the challenges of social isolation and financial hardship during restrictions. These same restrictions also make it difficult for others to identify individuals who may be on a path to radicalization. Footnote 51
Key conclusions
41. Individuals or groups inspired by Salafi-jihadi ideology, such as Daesh and al-Qaida, posed the greatest terrorist threat to Canada in 2018. While Daesh and al-Qaida have been relatively weakened in the past two years, they continue to pose a threat to Canada and Canadian interests domestically and abroad. At the same time, CSIS has uncovered extensive ideologically motivated violent extremism activities in the past two years (notably right-wing extremist groups), as demonstrated through online activity and physical attacks. The sizable increase in this activity throughout 2020 suggests the terrorist threat landscape is shifting. The primary physical threat to Canada remains low-sophistication attacks on unsecured public spaces. These trends mirror those experienced by Canada's closest allies.