Annex A: Overview and Key Conclusions
National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians Annual Report 2020
Terrorism
Overview
116. In its 2018 annual report, the Committee noted that the national security and intelligence community identified terrorism as the primary threat to national security. The government also stated that individuals or groups inspired by Salafi-jihadi ideology posed the greatest terrorist threat to Canada. This assessment has evolved based on a number of trends and events. These include the liberation of Daesh-controlled territory in Iraq and Syria, the subsequent detention of Canadian extremist travellers (also known as foreign fighters) in Syria, attacks against Canadians by extremist individuals and organizations, and the rise of ideologically motivated violent extremism.
Key conclusions
117. Individuals or groups inspired by Salafi-jihadi ideology, such as Daesh and al-Qaida, posed the greatest terrorist threat to Canada in 2018. While Daesh and al-Qaida have been relatively weakened in the past two years, they continue to pose a threat to Canada and Canadian interests domestically and abroad. At the same time, CSIS has uncovered extensive ideologically motivated violent extremism activities (notably right-wing extremist groups), in the past two years, as demonstrated through online activity and physical attacks. The sizable increase in this activity throughout 2020 suggests the terrorist threat landscape is shifting. The primary physical threat to Canada remains low-sophistication attacks on unsecured public spaces. These trends mirror those experienced by Canada's closest allies.
Espionage and foreign interference
Overview
118. In 2018, the Committee identified espionage and foreign interference as growing threats that will likely require a more significant response in the years ahead. Espionage and foreign interference threaten Canada's sovereignty, prosperity and national interests. These threats target communities, governments, businesses, universities and technology. ln 2019, the Committee reviewed the government's response to foreign interference and found that foreign interference activities pose a significant risk to national security, principally by undermining Canada's fundamental institutions and eroding the rights and freedoms of Canadians. In 2020, CSIS stated that hostile state actors pose the greatest danger to Canada's national security. Media reports, speeches from officiais and information on criminal cases all demonstrate that the threat continues to grow not just in Canada, but among its allies as well.
Key conclusions
119. The threat from espionage and foreign interference is significant and continues to grow. Several states are responsible for conducting such activities in Canada, but intelligence shows that China and Russia remain the primary culprits. Though the effects of espionage and foreign interference are notas readily apparent as those of terrorism, they are the most significant long-term threats to Canada's sovereignty and prosperity. The pandemic, meanwhile, has provided a new impetus for foreign states to conduct espionage activities against the Canadian health sector and Canadian organizations working in science and technology.
Malicious cyber activities
Overview
120. In its 2018 overview, the Committee characterized malicious cyber activities as a significant risk to national security and specifically pointed to the threat China and Russia pose to government networks. Cyber threats are pervasive. They affect government systems, critical infrastructure providers, the private sector and Canadians. Cyber threat actors range from low-sophistication cyber criminals to highly capable state-sponsored actors. Their motivations also vary, and include the theft of persona! information for fraud-related purposes or of intellectual property and confidential business information for industrial espionage, and the interruption of critical services. In 2020, cyber threats continue to be a national security concern for Canada, and Russia and China continue to be the most sophisticated state sponsored actors targeting Canadian government systems. Over the past year, cyber threat actors have also taken advantage of the global health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to further their objectives. Malicious state and non-state actors have targeted the health sector and government services, and conducted online disinformation campaigns aimed at manipulating public opinion and undermining confidence in the functioning of key public health systems.
Key conclusions
121. Cyber threats present a serious and growing risk to Canada's national security. State actors, China and Russia in particular, continue to target government networks, public institutions and private companies for cyber espionage. These actors continue to build their capability to target critical infrastructure, conduct online influence campaigns and monitor dissidents abroad. The pandemic put these threats into stark relief, in particular the threats posed to Canada's health sector. The Committee will deliver its review of the government's defensive cyber capabilities to the Prime Minister in 2021.
Major organized crime
Overview
122. In its 2018 annual report, the Committee stated that the impact of organized crime was significant and insidious. Organized crime groups pursue traditional criminal activities such as the illegal trafficking of drugs, weapons, illicit goods and people, and financial crimes, such as fraud, illegal gaming and market manipulation. The illegal activities of major organized crime groups continue to carry significant costs for society and pose substantial risks to Canada. Over the past two decades, these activities have grown in complexity and sophistication. The nature of the threat has not markedly changed since 2018.
Key conclusions
123. Major organized crime continues to pose an important national security threat. The proceeds of crime are estimated in the billions, which represents significant lost revenue for governments and a source of further criminality. Beyond these costs are the financial and societal ramifications of organized crime: it undermines the rule of law, threatens public safety, and erodes our financial, legal, political and social institutions.
Weapons of mass destruction
Overview
124. The Committee identified weapons of mass destruction and the proliferation of dual-use materials and technologies as a national security threat in its 2018 annual report. These weapons have the potential to cause indiscriminate and mass casualties, and significant and long-term environmental and economic damage. These weapons and their proliferation have not posed an increased threat to Canada in the past two years. However, a number of trends, described below, may affect this assessment. These trends include: the global nuclear disarmament regime has weakened since 2018 and the continued used of chemical weapons by state and non-state actors has undermined international norms; and technological advancements have increased the accessibility of dual-use materials and facilitated the development and delivery of chemical and biological weapons. Moreover, Canada remains a target of illicit and covert procurement of dual-use technologies by several state actors. At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed significant vulnerabilities in state economies, health sectors and response systems.
Key conclusions
125. The security environment surrounding weapons of mass destruction has not improved since 2018. The nuclear arms contrai regime has seen important setbacks in the past two years. Long-standing international norms against chemical weapons have been effectively undermined by the use of these weapons by state and non-state actors in conflicts and targeted assassinations. The use of biological weapons remains rare, but the verification regime is weak and the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic suggest that states' capacity to respond may be limited. The relative accessibility of chemical and biological materials, and the proliferation of dual-use technologies, is of particular concern for Canada.